This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 17:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 18th strongest of the 53 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:39PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 492,078 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 8, 2026 · score 43 · 3.5 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 43 · 6.7 km
- June 12, 2026 · score 43 · 8.3 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 83 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 83% |
| Coordinates | 38.5054, -77.6994 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (26 km) |
| Population Exposed | 492.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T16:39:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7641fd00eb3cee58a94707dc8d5e2e7b |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Alexandria, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Appomattox, VA; Buckingham, VA; Amelia, VA; Cumberland, VA; Fluvanna, VA; Nottoway, VA; Powhatan, VA; Prince Edward, VA and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:39PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T13:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7641fd00eb3cee58a94707dc8d5e2e7bc7848bff.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.df5c534aa15b8c8badb67e959d34843ee8e9c222.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.107aac724d133158185122d2b98dd10ce5cda7ee.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d1b58653144daf97f10c7dcce67cec37b0c0daad.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 1 N McMullen |
| Spc County | Greene |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | A tree was down along South River Road and Entry Run Road. (LWX) |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_38.36_-78.46_51","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773670140000,"latitude":38.36,"longitude":-78.46}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Culpeper (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.